Confusing title eh?
Carrying around an iPad is a fairly consistent process right? I mean, you have your iPad…perhaps in a case, perhaps not. You bring it to work, to grab coffee or go wherever. Would you agree that the odds of dropping it are fairly consistent over time? Do you think the odds of you dropping it over time are higher, or lower? Seems like it wouldn’t make much of a difference, at least to me.
Take coin coss – let’s say you’ve had heads 9 times in a row and you had to bet on the next result. I’d bet on tails due to the recent assymmetry in the distribution but anyone who has studied probability knows that there’s a constant 50% of a head or tail, assuming a fair coin and a vigorous toss.
According to electronics aftermarket warranty provider ‘SquareTrade‘ – the accident claim rate doubles in the 2nd year of ownership. Think about that – given the condition that someone has owned their device for more than 1 year, the odds of them dropping the device doubles. Now – it would be idiotic to try and say that the longer you have something, the greater the odds of dropping it are…or would it? What are some obvious and less obvious factors that may drive this reality:
- After time people become more careless – this doesn’t account for the doubling of the accident rate for the iPad 2 over the iPad 1 in similar years however.
- Could people be giving the iPad to others as they purchase new ones? Given the recipient has no ‘skin in the game’, are they more careless?
- Are more younger people getting iPads now, explaining the doubling of accident rate between versions – said differently, teens don’t take good care of their stuff?
- The volume of iPad2′s sold relative to the original is much much higher and they appealed to a broader market. The broader the market, the more likely you’ll find the device in the hands of ‘less careful people’?
- The device drops multiple times but it takes longer than a year to break the camel’s back, so to speak?
- To point 5. the iPad 2′s display is ‘weaker’? Doubtful but worth considering.
- People get tired of their scoffed up screen so they destroy the device on purpose – they did purchase a warranty after all. Calls into question whether the accident rates for insured and uninsured iPads are equal…I suspect not.
- Borrowing from point 7, because they have the warranty they are more careless over time. Especially after the screen has become used up a bit.
I believe point 8 is likely the most true, perhaps with a tip of the hat to 5 as well – but without some deep introspection you could easily misconstrue what this statistic actually ‘means’. This is also true in business analytics. In any situation there are several variables or conditions which are basically ‘silent’. Meaning they don’t have a line on your chart, nor do they really belong on your P&L report because they are hidden by nature. Only through careful reflection can you sort of determine precisely what it is you cannot see…and your degree of precision will definitely vary!
Next time – Kindle Fire burn rates,
Jeff
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